运载火箭摄动制导导引系数实时计算方法

对于新型运载火箭,没有相近型号导引系数数据供参考,采用传统试探法计算量大,在制导方案初期论证中不能满足多方案快速计算的需求。在引入理想弹道剩余飞行速度概念的基础上,提出导引系数实时计算方法。本方法对当前实时状态参数和后续飞行段弹道进行了综合考虑,通过数字仿真表明导引精度高于传统常系数导引方法。由于本方法对导引能力进行了预估,因而制导指令不会剧烈变化,易于姿态控制系统的设计实现。同时,由于采用完全解析法,对箭载计算机计算能力要求几乎没有增加,易于工程实现。     

装备保障资源确定技术研究与需求分析系统开发

维修资源是实施装备维修工作的物质基础和重要保证,无论是平时训练还是战时抢修,维修资源都占据着十分重要的地位,不仅影响着装备的寿命周期费用(Life Cycle Costs,LCC),还直接影响着装备的战备完好率以及部队战斗力的保持和恢复.应用更加科学高效的方法确定保障资源,是维修决策面临的重要问题之一.据此,着眼于部队装备维修保障现状需求,将维修任务分配与保障资源需求紧密结合,提出了保障资源确定分析流程,并对分析过程中的关键技术进行了相应的研究,建立了典型的维修决策模型,优化了保障资源配置.最后开发了计算机辅助决策分析系统,为维修资源的优化配置起到了很好的辅助决策作用.     

弹丸飞行时间拟合误差对射击诸元误差的影响

分析了基本射表中弹丸飞行时间拟合误差对射击诸元误差的影响,给出了因时间拟合误差引起的射击误差的解析表达,并利用5条典型航路分析了飞行时间拟合误差对射角、射向误差的影响,得出了不同航捷、航高、斜距、目标速度下拟合误差对射击诸元误差的影响关系,从而为确定弹丸飞行时间拟合精度提供依据.     

Convoys to combat Somali piracy

As the world becomes increasingly globalized, interruptions to international trade cannot be permitted. Piracy off the coast of Somalia has hampered international trade in the region and poses significant risks to the sailors required to navigate those waters. Over the past three years the global community has attempted, through a number of different naval tactics, to stop these acts of piracy; however, these tactics have proven ineffective. This article looks at historical precedence and military theory to support the concept of using convoys to protect the thousands of cargo vessels traveling round the Horn of Africa every year. This tactic will greatly decrease the number of successful pirate attacks and save countless lives in the process.     

On the brink: The resurgence of militant Islam in Central Asia

Since Operation Enduring Freedom, Central Asian militants, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, have fled to Pakistan from their previous strongholds in Afghanistan. However, many militants have begun returning to Central Asia. Thus questions are raised as to what extent militancy has the potential to thrive with the pending North Atlantic Treaty Organization withdrawal from Afghanistan set for 2014? Is militancy a legitimate security threat to Central Asia? What strategies might militants implement? Thus, this article examines the current state of militancy, analyzes militant trends, introduces Afghanistan and Pakistan into the Central Asian equation, and determines the militants' capability and overall strategy. The article concludes that militant Islam, regardless of its current numbers, remains a viable threat to regional security, Afghanistan will be an essential factor for the future of Central Asian militancy, and the form this re-emergence will take becomes apparent.     

一种新闻事件演化建模方法

为了准确地发现话题中事件间的潜在关系,提出一种新闻事件演化建模方法。该方法利用事件的时间关系、内容相似性、命名实体关联信息构建新的演化关系模型,并通过定义事件的五种演化模式,识别出演化过程中的开始、中间、结束事件,最后根据新演化模型及演化模式建立事件演化的有向无环图模型,揭示事件发展的潜在脉络结构。实验结果表明,本文方法能够有效检测事件演化,提升系统性能。     

简析政府职能转变之明确性原则——以消防法律文本为视域

政府职能转变是一项浩大、复杂的系统工程,不仅需要正确的方向,也更需要科学的方法.其中,明确性就是一个必须遵守的原则.审视政府消防管理职能50年的文本变迁,对政府职能转变与明确性原则关系进行了现实考察,进而分析明确性原则与政府职能转变关系进路.     

高层建筑安全疏散设计探析

近年来我国高层建筑剧增,承载的人口越来越密集,火灾荷载越来越大,如果安全疏散设计不合理,一旦发生火灾,容易造成严重后果.在分析高层建筑的火灾特点和影响人员安全疏散的因素的基础上,从合理设置安全出口、疏散走道、疏散楼梯、疏散宽度和距离、疏散门、避难层及其他辅助疏散设施、疏散照明灯具等方面探析了高层建筑的安全疏散设计,为避免和减少人员伤亡和财产损失创造条件.     

Insights from a Database of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen Militants

This article uses a novel database of 1,625 posthumously published biographies of members of two Islamist militant organizations (Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM)), all of whom were killed in the course of carrying out militant attacks. In general, each biography provides data on the militant’s birthplace, education, recruitment, and training. The number of observations in this database is a full order of magnitude larger than those of previous databases assembled from militant biographies. While the sample of militants in this database is the product of multiple selection effects, analysis of the database undermines many common myths about Pakistani militants and casts doubt on current policy approaches to mitigating Islamist militancy in Pakistan.     

Reinterpreting Libya's WMD Turnaround – Bridging the Carrot-Coercion Divide

The dominant explanations of Libya's nuclear reversal in 2003 privilege either coercion or carrots treating these instruments as alternatives. Indoing so they ignore that it took a combination of coercion, carrots and confidence-building to turn Libya around. This article demonstrates this by developing and deploying a theoretical framework that integrates these three instruments into a more coherent and convincing explanation of the case. It highlights that analysts and policy-makers would do well to focus more on how different policy tools can be used in combination to achieve desired outcomes than on how individual tools can be employed with decisive effects. It also demonstrates that the Libya success will be hard to replicate.